Bayesian Confidence Intervals for Coefficients of Variation of PM10 Dispersion

Herein, we propose the Bayesian approach for constructing the confidence intervals for both the coefficient of variation of a log-normal distribution and the difference between the coefficients of variation of two log-normal distributions. For the first case, the Bayesian approach was compared with large-sample, Chi-squared, and approximate fiducial approaches via Monte Carlo simulation. For the second case, the Bayesian approach was compared with the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER), modified MOVER, and approximate fiducial approaches using Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the Bayesian approach provided the best approach for constructing the confidence intervals for both the coefficient of variation of a log-normal distribution and the difference between the coefficients of variation of two log-normal distributions. To illustrate the performances of the confidence limit construction approaches with real data, they were applied to analyze real PM10 datasets from the Nan and Chiang Mai provinces in Thailand, the results of which are in agreement with the simulation results. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01264 Full Text: PD

Confidence Intervals for Mean and Difference between Means of Normal Distributions with Unknown Coefficients of Variation

This paper proposes confidence intervals for a single mean and difference of two means of normal distributions with unknown coefficients of variation (CVs). The generalized confidence interval (GCI) approach and large sample (LS) approach were proposed to construct confidence intervals for the single normal mean with unknown CV. These confidence intervals were compared with existing confidence interval for the single normal mean based on the Student’s t-distribution (small sample size case) and the z-distribution (large sample size case). Furthermore, the confidence intervals for the difference between two normal means with unknown CVs were constructed based on the GCI approach, the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) approach and the LS approach and then compared with the Welch–Satterthwaite (WS) approach. The coverage probability and average length of the proposed confidence intervals were evaluated via Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the GCIs for the single normal mean and the difference of two normal means with unknown CVs are better than the other confidence intervals. Finally, three datasets are given to illustrate the proposed confidence intervals

Comparing particulate matter dispersion in Thailand using the Bayesian Confidence Intervals for ratio of coefficients of variation

Recently, harmful levels of air pollution have been detected in many provinces of Thailand. Particulate matter (PM) contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can be inhaled and cause serious health problems. A high dispersion of PM is measured by a coefficient of variation of log-normal distribution. Since the log-normal distribution is often used to analyse environmental data such as hazardous dust particle levels and daily rainfall data. These data focus the statistical inference on the coefficient of variation. In this paper, we develop confidence interval estimation for the ratio of coefficients of variation of two log-normal distributions constructed using the Bayesian approach. These confidence intervals were then compared with the existing approaches: method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER), modified MOVER, and approximate fiducial approaches using their coverage probabilities and average lengths via Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that the Bayesian confidence interval performed better than the others in terms of coverage probability and average length. The proposed approach and the existing approaches are illustrated using examples from data set PM10 level and PM2.5 level in the northern Thailand

Confidence Intervals for Mean and Difference between Means of Delta-Lognormal Distributions Based on Left-Censored Data

A delta-lognormal distribution consists of zero and positive values. The positive values follow a lognormal distribution, which is an asymmetric distribution. It is well known that the logarithm of these values follows a normal distribution, which is a symmetric distribution. The delta-lognormal distribution is used in medical and environmental sciences. This study considers the challenges of constructing confidence intervals for the mean and difference between means of delta-lognormal distributions containing left-censored data and applies them to compare two daily rainfall average areas in Thailand. Three different approaches for constructing confidence intervals for the mean of the delta-lognormal distribution containing left-censored data, based on the generalized confidence interval approach, the Bayesian approach, and the parametric bootstrap approach, are developed. Moreover, four different approaches for constructing confidence intervals for the difference between means of delta-lognormal distributions containing left-censored data, based on the generalized confidence interval approach, the Bayesian approach, the parametric bootstrap approach, and the method of variance estimates recovery approach, are considered. The performance of the proposed confidence intervals is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation studies indicate that the Bayesian approach can be considered as an alternative to construct a credible interval for the mean of the delta-lognormal distribution containing left-censored data. Additionally, the generalized confidence interval and Bayesian approaches can be recommended as alternatives to estimate the confidence interval for the difference between means of delta-lognormal distributions containing left-censored data. All approaches are illustrated using the daily rainfall data from Chiang Mai and Lampang provinces in Thailand

The Relative Potency of Two Drugs Using the Confidence Interval for Ratio of Means of Two Normal Populations with Unknown Coefficients of Variation

In the paper, the relative potency of two drugs using confidence intervals for the ratio of two means of normal distributions with unknown coefficients of variation is considered. The new confidence intervals were constructed using the large sample approach, the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) approach, and then compared with the existing approach: the generalized confidence interval (GCI) approach of Lee and Lin [1]. A simulation study showed that the large sample approach can be used to estimate the confidence interval for the ratio of normal means with unknown coefficients of variation when the value of σY /σX is small otherwise the GCI approach is recommended when the value of σY/σX is large. Applications to drug testing and carboxyhemoglobin test are included

Confidence intervals for ratio of means of delta-lognormal distributions based on left-censored data with application to rainfall data in Thailand

Thailand is a country that is prone to both floods and droughts, and these natural disasters have significant impacts on the country’s people, economy, and environment. Estimating rainfall is an important part of flood and drought prevention. Rainfall data typically contains both zero and positive observations, and the distribution of rainfall often follows the delta-lognormal distribution. However, it is important to note that rainfall data can be censored, meaning that some values may be missing or truncated. The interval estimator for the ratio of means will be useful when comparing the means of two samples. The purpose of this article was to compare the performance of several approaches for statistically analyzing left-censored data. The performance of the confidence intervals was evaluated using the coverage probability and average length, which were assessed through Monte Carlo simulation. The approaches examined included several variations of the generalized confidence interval, the Bayesian, the parametric bootstrap, and the method of variance estimates recovery approaches. For (ξ1, ξ2) = (0.10,0.10), simulations showed that the Bayesian approach would be a suitable choice for constructing the credible interval for the ratio of means of delta-lognormal distributions based on left-censored data. For (ξ1, ξ2) = (0.10,0.25), the parametric bootstrap approach was a strong alternative for constructing the confidence interval. However, the generalized confidence interval approach can be considered to construct the confidence when the sample sizes are increase. Practical applications demonstrating the use of these techniques on rainfall data showed that the confidence interval based on the generalized confidence interval approach covered the ratio of population means and had the smallest length. The proposed approaches’ effectiveness was illustrated using daily rainfall datasets from the provinces of Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai in Thailand

Estimation of common percentile of rainfall datasets in Thailand using delta-lognormal distributions

Weighted percentiles in many areas can be used to investigate the overall trend in a particular context. In this article, the confidence intervals for the common percentile are constructed to estimate rainfall in Thailand. The confidence interval for the common percentile help to indicate intensity of rainfall. Herein, four new approaches for estimating confidence intervals for the common percentile of several delta-lognormal distributions are presented: the fiducial generalized confidence interval, the adjusted method of variance estimates recovery, and two Bayesian approaches using fiducial quantity and approximate fiducial distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the coverage probabilities and average lengths via the R statistical program. The proposed confidence intervals are compared in terms of their coverage probabilities and average lengths, and the results of a comparative study based on these metrics indicate that one of the Bayesian confidence intervals is better than the others. The efficacies of the approaches are also illustrated by applying them to daily rainfall datasets from various regions in Thailand

A Bayesian approach for estimation of coefficients of variation of normal distributions

The coefficient of variation is widely used as a measure of data precision. Confidence intervals for a single coefficient of variation when the data follow a normal distribution that is symmetrical and the difference between the coefficients of variation of two normal populations are considered in this paper. First, the confidence intervals for the coefficient of variation of a normal distribution are obtained with adjusted generalized confidence interval (adjusted GCI), computational, Bayesian, and two adjusted Bayesian approaches. These approaches are compared with existing ones comprising two approximately unbiased estimators, the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) and generalized confidence interval (GCI). Second, the confidence intervals for the difference between the coefficients of variation of two normal distributions are proposed using the same approaches, the performances of which are then compared with the existing approaches. The highest posterior density interval was used to estimate the Bayesian confidence interval. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the performance of the confidence intervals. The results of the simulation studies demonstrate that the Bayesian and two adjusted Bayesian approaches were more accurate and better than the others in terms of coverage probabilities and average lengths in both scenarios. Finally, the performances of all of the approaches for both scenarios are illustrated via an empirical study with two real-data examples